CTS: Q3 in numbers

[00:00:00] Speaker A: Foreign. Hello and welcome to the Lodestar Podcast. I am your host, Charlotte Goldstone. We are coming to the end of 2026, which I can't believe where this year has gone. But We've already finished Q3 and today we're going to be checking back in with the CEO of Container Trade Statistics or CTS, Nigel Pusey, to examine what the numbers up to Q3 tell us about how external internal factors have influenced the market. For anyone who doesn't know, CTS is the most comprehensive data set on the market for global container shipping volumes and pricing. Its data is comprised of 75% contributed member data from the shipping lines themselves and market driven estimates for the remaining 25. They release monthly reports that really do contextualize the stories that we report on and the external factors in the market that are influencing shippers and forwarders. So a bit later on in the episode we are going to be joined by the Lodestars managing editor Gavin Van Mahle to give us some further detail about what he's been reporting on and how the numbers reflect this. The three of us are gonna be dissecting and analyzing the biggest shifts in volumes, pricing and trade lanes over the last quarter. Plus I am gonna be putting Gavin and Nigel's past predictions to the test from the Q2 podcast we recorded a few months ago. So we've got a lot to get into. Let's get into the episode. Hello and welcome to the Lodestar podcast. Nigel. [00:01:33] Speaker B: Hello Charlotte, Good to see you. [00:01:34] Speaker A: Great to have. So before we dive into the dynamics and factors that shaped pricing and volumes in Q3 2026, I just want to get an overview of what happened with some quick fire questions based on the CTS data as we usually do. So to start, what was the total volume demand growth globally in Q3? And as a reminder for our listeners, in the first half of the year we saw some pretty high numbers. This was 98.4 million and this was up 5.2%. So what happened in Q3? [00:02:03] Speaker B: We pretty much kept at the same levels actually in Q3, so it's been a pretty strong period. So global volumes now stand at 52.2 million for Q3. That's up 2.4% on the previous quarter. So there's an element of slowdown there on the quarter, but the Global volumes are up 5%, which is actually slightly higher than we were in the second quarter. So you know, year to date compared with last year, we've got some still pretty robust growth, [00:02:36] Speaker A: really strong. So overall globally did moving freight get more expensive or less this quarter? [00:02:42] Speaker B: Very much more expensive. Freight rates increased 23% from Q2 to Q3, and we've now had a 58% increase since the beginning of the year. So the September global price index value is up to 123. So we're seeing some pretty strong pricing. [00:03:01] Speaker A: Wow. And I'm sure most people know why, but we will get into the details of that later. Which trade saw the overall Highest volume for Q1 and Q2? This was intra Asia, so I'm assuming it's no different in Q3. [00:03:13] Speaker B: It's no difference at all. And that's even moving ahead, you know, beyond the global average, it's up at around 6.3%. And it is worth remembering that, you know, Whilst I said 5%, if you take the Middle east values that haven't moved because of Hormuz, that number would be around that number. Globally, it would be about six and a half. So it's an extremely strong year. [00:03:37] Speaker A: So obviously Intra Asia is always probably going to be the overall highest volume. So which trade recorded the most growth in both rates and volumes? [00:03:47] Speaker B: So the volume has been for the last few quarters, when we've been doing these podcasts, is Far east to Sub Saharan Africa pretty much is around 24% year to date, but if you actually split that out, West Africa is around 28, 29. East Coast Africa is over 32% on the year to date, so it's a very, very strong growth. On the price side, it'll be of no surprise that the big price index increases is Asia to India and the Middle east, where the index is up 250% since the beginning of the year. [00:04:20] Speaker A: Oh, my God. [00:04:21] Speaker B: And 25% on the month, on month. So September's seen a resurgence of the price there, so we're seeing some very strong prices. [00:04:29] Speaker A: Obviously, this is an audio podcast, but for anyone listening, my jaw did just actually drop. That is a huge, huge increase. On the flip side of this, Nigel, which trade saw the biggest decline in rates and volumes? [00:04:40] Speaker B: So a couple were running neck and neck of the volume decreases. And again, it will be no surprise that North America to India and Middle east primarily, obviously Middle east cargo down 10.4% and India to Europe was about the same 10.3%. So some pretty strong volume movements there. It's a strange one given everything we've just said. And we will talk about Far East Europe, but interestingly, the Far east to Europe index fell 7.5% in the month. And I think, you know, it's an interesting little light for the what's going to happen in Q4 that we're starting to see some dropping freight rates. [00:05:19] Speaker A: These numbers very simply give us an idea of what moved where. But to help remind us what influenced those movements, we're going to be taking more of a deep dive into the individual trades and external factors that impacted them. And of course, we can't discuss the ocean freight dynamics without Lodestar Managing editor Gavin Van Marl. Hello Gav. Great to have you back. [00:05:37] Speaker C: Hello, Charlotte. Hello Nigel. Greetings, [00:05:41] Speaker B: Gavin. Good morning. [00:05:42] Speaker A: So this quarter has been characterized by months of record breaking container movements. At the start of the quarter that record was broken in July and then that was surpassed in August just marginally. One of the main trends this year and a large reason for this growth has been the huge rebound of Far east exports, particularly to the US and Europe. So what are the main markets that you are seeing as importers of Far east cargo? Should we start by looking at what's going on in the Trans Pacific? Nigel [00:06:09] Speaker B: yes, after a very sluggish start, this Greater China to North America, we were having volumes down 5 or 6% in the first and second quarter. Suddenly from sort of May onwards, actually we started to see some tightening in the whole China to North America volumes started increasing. So we're up almost 5.8% year to date and Q3 is up 13% on this time last year. So having been cautious with tariffs and various other things, the volumes have started to come back. But probably the most spectacular thing is the increase in the price index. The Greater China to US West coast is 162 in September, up from 90 back in January. So that's a significant increase in that index. And the other two indexes, Eastern and Gulf coast indexes are up similarly, which is up almost 10% on the month alone. So there's some very strong movement in prices and in volumes. [00:07:11] Speaker A: And Gav, from speaking to forwarders, shippers, I mean, do you have anything to note on the Trans Pacific trade? Do you know what's driving this increase? [00:07:18] Speaker C: I did an interview with the CEO of Long Beach a couple of days ago, Noel Hasseb. Gabba, I think I've got that right. It's a bit like the Wayne's World joke. I put the wrong emphasis on the wrong syllable anyhow. Yeah. So basically long be think they're going to hit 10 million TEU this year, which would be their first time in history. September was their record breaking month. It was 977,000 TEU. He put it down to three things, he said front loading to try and avoid the imposition of the USTR301 port fees on Chinese vessels, which of course subsequently has been postponed until the 9th of January. He said there was also a bit of worries about the Panama Canal, so that there were shippers in the US rerouting cargo through the West Coast. And also this pertains to Nigel's last point, that you have very escalating freight rate costs, particularly into the US east coast, which had diverted some cargo to the West Coast. Now you look at that from overall Asia to North America thing. Actually, the second two of those components are really just about switching cargo from the east coast to the West Coast. So really stripping out those, you'd say that the big reason behind this was a lot of front loading. And I wouldn't put it just down to the port fees thing. I would think it's more the way that people's thinking about supply chains have just changed. People are willing to take more freight in because they're worried about not having the freight there in the first place. [00:08:52] Speaker A: It's interesting because I feel like everyone I've spoken to over the last year asking what's going on on the Trans Pacific? The answer is always front loading. And if there's external shocks happening on that trade, like every month, at what point does front loading just become normal loading? [00:09:04] Speaker C: Yes, [00:09:05] Speaker B: that's a very good point, I think, Charlotte, because, you know, we saw it in Far East Europe, everybody thought they were front loading for 1st of July because of the bunker hikes. And yet, you know, September came back with incredible numbers. So it's quite difficult to see through the sea because at the end of the day, it's just an awful lot of cargo. [00:09:24] Speaker C: I wonder whether some of it's being sort of obscured by a lot of the sort of schedule reliability issues. So the volumes are sort of slipping from one quarter to another in a way, you know, because we've had lots of reports of cargo being rolled. And this thing of double sailings where two vessels on the same service actually end up departing the loading port in the same week because one of the sailings has slid. I just wonder whether that's sort of obfuscating the data. [00:09:51] Speaker B: The other thing which I, you know, I don't hear so much about is just box availability. You know, if you look at the way that the stretch of boxes is at the moment in China, generally just trying to keep the sheer number of boxes around to fill, this sort of cargo just makes the scarcity of boxes just as critical as the operational capacity of the vessel. I just wonder whether that plays into this, particularly when you've got both the Far East Europe and Transpac pulling at the same time for the same container demand. [00:10:23] Speaker A: Well, that actually brings me onto my next point with the point you mentioned about container shortages. Because with the continued strength of the Far east exports, how is that trade imbalance looking? Because we spoke about this briefly on the last episode and I know it features in your newsletters quite a lot. You do the, the figures of the trade imbalance, but has it worsened over the last quarter with obviously cargo coming out of Far east but not going back in. [00:10:43] Speaker B: So, you know, we are now in 26 on a year to date basis, 10% worse imbalance than we were in 25, which was 18% worse than 24. So just to give the absolutes, for every box going from Europe to Asia, there are 3.66 boxes coming back, whereas in 2024 that was 2.8. There's almost for every box going out, there's an additional box coming in and that's taken two years to achieve along with going around Cape would hope. And I know they've been doing it for some time, but it just keeps stretching the time that a box needs to go around the system. [00:11:23] Speaker C: I did have a conversation with John Fossey at Drury who compiles their container new building numbers, not the ships but the actual containers themselves. I think that they're expecting something like 7, 7 million, 7 and a half million TEU to be built this year. And that might actually be revised upwards, but it's still being sort of ascertained. [00:11:44] Speaker B: We used to talk about a box traveling five times globally in any year and I'm sure that's well below four now. So that's why you need seven and a half million more boxes in the system, just to facilitate all the trade imbalances that we have. I think in the Europe trade, what we're starting to see is the Suez Red Sea reintroduction is starting to recognize that capacity is coming back as the lines look to move those containers much more quickly through the system than they had done in the past. And I think, and it's always difficult when we're looking at stats, we talk about the strength, but actually if you look at Far East Europe trade at the moment, month on month, it is slightly softening. I'm wary the person who suggests that there is a softening going on and I've been talking internally about this for a couple of months, but I do think There is a softening starting to happen in Far East Europe. The volumes are down 1 and a half to 2% on the last two months, month on month, even though they're very strong compared with the previous year. And I think that that's starting to signal that we might just be getting to the end of this run. [00:12:55] Speaker C: Whereas the Transpac has just been. Has just stubbornly remained elevated week in, week out. I have reports of rollovers, booking issues, blank sailings, problems with schedule reliability, and that's sort of been a feature of Trans Pacific or certainly North American importers for, I'd say about three months. [00:13:16] Speaker A: For the last few times we've caught up, I think we've all been a bit shocked by the continued strength of Far east exports to South America and Sub Saharan Africa. These secondary trades, this trend really picked up back when we saw all the tariff stuff kicking off at the start of last year. Obviously we saw China lose a big chunk of its main consumer market and it was trying to find other consumer markets. As we just spoke about, we are now seeing a rebound on the Trans Pacific, but this hasn't really coincided with a decline on these secondary trades. Last episode, Nigel, I made you make a prediction and you said that you wouldn't be surprised if South America starts to get the growth out of Asia that Sub Saharan Africa has had and that it would be the next big push for cargo. You explained that there are services being reorganized to go as far as Mexico. You said we're starting to see an uptick in the southern Mexican ports taking cargo coming off the back of South American revisions. And we're seeing an awful lot of interest there from the lines. That was your words just a quarter ago. What actually happened there? What did the data show? The data [00:14:16] Speaker B: show showing that we've had some increases. It's probably only around 12 to 15%, depending on whether it's west coast or east coast to South America. But those revisions have started to accelerate the price index. And this is why I think the availability of containers is quite an issue as well. So just to give context, from Greater China to South Central America, back in May, the index was 71. It's up to 133 as we speak now. And if you go back as early as January and February, it was as little as 45, 44. So suddenly all that capacity that came in at the beginning of the year has started to come through. The revisions have clearly picked up on the right places to move cargo to and suddenly the whole picture has tightened up again. Now, I think in this area again they're feeling the heat in terms of congestion in the ports in China, the box availability. The price wave starts to impact around now. It's worse in South Central America than it is in Africa where the West African one is slightly down. So South Central America is really suffering price wise at the moment, but the volumes keep going up. September itself was up almost 200,000 EUs. So that's a pretty substantial movement in one month. In this particular trade. It's nothing like the volumes of Transpac and Transatlantic, but it just shows this is not particularly for South Central America, but I was looking the other day, West Africa is double the amount of throughputs out of China that it was two years ago. So these secondary trades are really starting to get volumes that make a difference on a global scale. [00:16:01] Speaker A: Huge points to you there for that prediction, Nigel. [00:16:05] Speaker B: Thank you, Charlotte. You're really ratcheting out for my next one. I've done nothing all today but think about what my next prediction should be. [00:16:12] Speaker A: I'm looking forward to hearing it. Do you have anything to note on the, the South America trade? Have you heard anything from your, from your contact? [00:16:21] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean it's been really interesting actually. It's been a real game of musical chairs amongst the carriers over the last month or so in terms of reorganization of the vessel sharing agreements and the respective carriers doing the joint services there. And when you see periods like that, you know, you see carriers dropping out one BSA and entering another or going standalone or whatever, it normally indicates a very healthy market because people are realizing that they can reposition themselves and all that sort of stuff. And then telling the full ins and outs of it would be like trying to explain the plot of Keeping up with the Kardashians. But we had a great analysis on it written by Niels Roche. So I'm not going to go through the whole thing. But the sort of plum quote was that he looked at how the cards had fallen. It was basically MSC stands tall alone. The Ocean alliance consolidates because there's a sort of move amongst the Ocean alliance carriers to extend their VSA into some of these secondary trades. Maersk bets on controlling its own network and Hapagloid hedges across every camp. Smaller lines get pushed to the edges. But just since that article was published and only a couple of days ago, HAPAC have announced that they're going to launch two new standalone services. One from Asia to Mexico and one from Asia to the West Coast South America. So the soap opera hasn't finished. There's still A few moves that are going to be going on over the next couple of months or so. I think, [00:17:43] Speaker B: I think you're right. I'm here in Shanghai. Well, I've been visiting pretty much all the Asian lines this last week and a bit, and every single one of the major interest in data is around the Asia, south and Central America market at the moment because it's suddenly become one that shows real potential to make returns for them. So I think this is, this is not going to go away. One, this has got a, it's got long legs, unlike perhaps the Transpac in the Far East, Europe. [00:18:11] Speaker A: I'm sure it's one that we're going to keep talking about on future episodes of our podcast. And I think we need to do a bonus episode where I ask you and Gav to do the plot of Keeping up with the Kardashians. I think listeners would really like that. Well, as well as Far east exports, a major defining factor for container markets this year has of course been the conflict in the Middle east and the Hormuz closure. Alongside the ongoing Red Sea diversions, we have seen a massive return to the Red Sea transits this quarter. So Gav, from looking at the line of schedules, do you know roughly what percentage of a return we're on at the moment? [00:18:47] Speaker C: It's still really, really fluid and also you need to delineate between sailings and announcements the moment there's quite a sort of avalanche of announcements but actually the sailings lag, they take place a bit later. And there's also a difference between some of the carriers in the alliance. So if you take the Ocean alliance for example, CMAC GEM was clearly the first to resume Suez transits. It had French naval escorts and then it was joined by Costco and Double O. And then this week Evergreen became the last Ocean alliance member to send its ships through Suez. I think Gemini is around sort of 75% back. MSC is similar premierly alliance is coming back now. So probably the best thing to say is like the base case is that by the end of Q1 next year we expect pretty much all the services to be back, maybe apart from Zim, who are still going around the Cape of Good Hope for pretty understandable reasons. [00:19:45] Speaker A: Nigel, when looking at the data, can you see these increased Red Sea transits reflected in the pricing? I mean it's freed up more capacity presumably. [00:19:53] Speaker B: I think despite the fact that we've got these very strong year on year increases volumes, September over August, August over July were down between 1 and 2%. We have a 7.5% reduction in the freight rate. September over August, Far East, Europe. I think that's the market sending the signal that, yes, we really love to have Red Sea back, but it's going to be at a slightly cheaper price. And you have to remember the lines, they're raison d' etre for moving this capacity is they desperately need to take capacity. We first thought that when they went back through the Red Sea, suddenly we'd have a wash of capacity. Suddenly they need it just to keep the networks alive because it's all over the place. So it's a good time for them to do it because it will have relatively minimal impact. But it has some impact because people will just feel that there will be more capacity and that softening at the edge of the spot rate is not a surprising movement at this stage. So it'd be interesting, I think GAV was saying it has slightly ticked up October, November and that that's maybe a correction. We're starting to see it, but it's not guaranteed that it is that way. [00:21:01] Speaker C: Yeah. So slightly, I mean, right as we record this, actually it looks like it sort of hit us, hit a mini ceiling. Also, this is on Asia Europe. You've had a series of fak increases. But also important to remember that right at the moment we're in annual contract tendering seasons, so there's always a bit more of an effort on the part of carriers to try keep the prices from falling through the floor because obviously it acts as a guide for the contracts. [00:21:25] Speaker A: On the other hand, to the increased confidence on the Red Sea routes, we're kind of seeing more uncertainty than ever on Hormuz transits with attacks happening pretty regularly. So are you seeing any impact of this on container movements and pricing? [00:21:39] Speaker B: Again, because we're slightly lagging behind our September data interest from Greater China to Middle East. September was a bit of a boom month of volumes. We actually saw for the first time China to Middle east actually above this time last year, for the first time since January, February. So I suspect that will fall back because the sort of things you've just been talking about. But what has just kept forcing its way through to the top is the price they're paying to achieve it. So we are now at a price index from Greater China to Middle east of 392, which is up 250%. On the beginning of the year, we have a month on month increase of 15.5%, despite the fact that year to date volumes are down 12. So at the moment what we've seen is a surge of cargo in late August, early September, prices to match. And I think that will drop off in October because the attacks did come back in that early part of the month. So I think there'll be some deviations. I've noticed one or two lines have stopped even serving cargo into the Corficans and the Fujiras, which suggests that the place is getting very congested because people are trying to rush cargo through. They're now saying, well, we're going to stop bookings whilst we just take a bit of a breather. So I don't usually use my crystal ball too much, but I'm pretty sure that's what's going to happen in October and early November. [00:23:05] Speaker A: Nigel, I'm glad you've bought up crystal balls because that gives me a great segue into the prediction segment, which is my favorite part of these podcasts. Obviously, Nigel, we did already talk about your predictions, so very well done already one point up. Gav, looking back at your prediction from last quarter, you said that you thought we were going to see the beginnings of the impact of the El Nino. You said that will last for about 12 months. You said that's going to have quite an impact on the Asia, North America east coast trade, which at the time we spoke last quarter was showing strong growth in terms of spot rates. So have we seen any kind of impacts this quarter from El Nino? [00:23:43] Speaker C: No, none whatsoever. I was completely wrong on that. Although perhaps in sort of hindsight it might turn out that I was just predicting this too early. [00:23:53] Speaker B: The thing is that I don't think it probably did in reality, but the problem is in the people's minds it did go because the prices went through the roof as everybody [00:24:00] Speaker C: panicked. The quote there quite an impact on the Asia, North America East. Yeah, absolutely. That's had a really, really strong quarter. And look, spot rates there notoriously have hit pandemic highs into the east coast, but it wasn't due to El Nino. I can't claim that because we thought we would start seeing a reduction in transit slots that they have per day. It looked like they were about to reduce the transit slots and then suddenly they realized they had enough water to maintain full capacity. [00:24:26] Speaker B: Thinking you didn't have water was almost enough. I hate to save you from your own predictions, but in a way you don't need to not have water. You just need to believe you're not going to have water. And I think the difference between the west coast index and the east coast index suggests that people just said I'm not going to risk going through Panama. I'm just going to go west coast because that gives me certainty and I land bridge it across. As you said beginning of this, people are saying, I just want to make sure I get my cargo. They're not taking the risks that they may have done historically. [00:24:57] Speaker C: Yeah, the west coast monthly throughput totals for recent months would support that. But you know, nonetheless, I'm old enough and big enough to say that I got that one wrong. [00:25:06] Speaker A: Well, Gav, you might have redeemed yourself because you did also say that you think the CTS price index is going to remain elevated over the next quarter being Q2 to Q3, which you said simply due to the higher bunker adjustment factors that shippers are having to pay due to the Horme's fuel costs. We did speak briefly about pricing in the Quickfire section, but can you give us a reminder, Nigel, on the level of pricing that we've been seeing? [00:25:29] Speaker B: Yeah, globally we're up to about 123, which I believe is 6 points up on the previous month. So that's a 3 and a half, 4% movement and we're 58% up on the beginning of the year. Prices are relentless at the moment. On a global level, I think we've got a month or two to go before we reach a peak, to be honest, with Middle east and the Transpac, despite what might be happening in Far East Europe. [00:25:55] Speaker A: Well done to you then, Gav. Well done all [00:25:57] Speaker B: at [00:25:57] Speaker A: the moment. Nigel, obviously with your prediction, you did say you wouldn't be surprised if South America starts to get the growth out of Asia that Sub Saharan Africa's had. We know from earlier on in the podcast that you got a point there, so very well done. But can this luck continue? So, to round off the episode, I am going to have to ask you both for some further predictions that we can assess next time we speak, if you would be so bold. Who would like to go first? [00:26:22] Speaker B: Go on, Gav, go on. [00:26:23] Speaker C: So my prediction is I think we're going to see strong growth in the South America's Europe trade for the next quarter, particularly in the reefers. And I say it's because of the trade deal, the Mercosur EU trade deal, which at the moment is still in an interim phase. But I did see some data yesterday that noted that Brazil's agricultural exports to the EU in the first five months of this interim deal have been up by 15%. I think that's in value terms rather than volume terms, but even so, for me that's Just Brazil. If that's replicated across Latin America, which there's no reason why it shouldn't be. Coffee and fruit exports in well across the continent really. And all of this is sort of an interesting demonstration of how policy, when it's executed well, can unlock trade. So my prediction, jump in latam Europe volumes. [00:27:17] Speaker A: We will lock that in. We're going to have to start keeping score, aren't we? At the [00:27:23] Speaker B: moment it's not reflecting too much on the overall region, so I'm looking forward to that one. I agree. It should be happening. I'm not seeing it yet. So mine is going to be. I've decided that to be bold and to say the thing that I've been thinking for the last two months, which is I think we're going to see quite a slowdown in Far East Europe trade for the rest of the year. I think that the sale has been blown so strong for all sorts of reasons, front loading bunkers, whatever it is, I think the wind will slightly come out of the sails through in Q4. So when we do this podcast next, I don't think it's going to be a complete deflation of the numbers, but I do think we're going to get back to a more realistic year to date percentage growth. We're over 11%. We had 21% versus September last year. I think that is going to soften off. It's not going to be dramatic, but I think it will be at the point that when we get to Q4 we'll be looking at a market that is much softer than it is today. All I'm saying is that I think we're going to see some month on month contractions continuing. I think we'll see the price index softening. We're still going to end up plus 6, 7, 8% year to date, but we're at 11 now. And this is depending on how you look at the data. It's a gentle slide down to a more realistic level. There has to be a point where the reality of economics says that the GDP growth is just not matching the sort of 20, 30% we've seen increase in the last two years in this cargo. There's not enough money being made in Europe just to keep buying all of this stuff. So that's my prediction. That is putting my head out more than I would do normally, but I think that's [00:29:03] Speaker A: very interesting. Well, I would encourage all of our listeners to tune into our Q4 podcast if you want to hear what see if [00:29:09] Speaker B: my [00:29:09] Speaker A: head [00:29:10] Speaker B: rolls. [00:29:14] Speaker A: And finally Nigel, before I let you go, CTS is going to be at some industry events next week. Where are you headed? You're currently in Shanghai. [00:29:22] Speaker B: I'm currently in Shanghai. I'm off to Singapore after the weekend and I'm speaking at TOK and CSC in Singapore in Marina Bay Sands. So if anybody's in the vicinity, please come and listen. We have an excellent panel. A container shipping line, myself, S P Global and a terminal talking about what's happening in the market. And for the first time, because we're splitting ourselves, CTS is in two places at once. Claire and the team are going to be in Rotterdam for intermodal and Claire's speaking on a similar subject, particularly Middle east and a little bit of China on Tuesday as well. So not quite simultaneously time wise, but CTS will be in two places at once. [00:30:04] Speaker A: Very exciting. Definitely sounds like some panels that you don't want to miss. And best of luck with those, Nigel. So that brings us to the end of our episode. Thank you both so much for joining me. It's been a pleasure to speak to you [00:30:15] Speaker B: as ever, Charlotte. Thanks very much, Gav. Keep well. And yourself, Charlotte. [00:30:18] Speaker C: And you, Nigel. Thank you very much, Charlotte.