Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Hello and welcome to the Lodestar podcast News in Brief, where once again we are going to be recapping the week's supply chain news as briefly as we possibly can. Coming up on this episode, we will be looking at what is behind the rising rates on the Trans Pacific and what this means for service levels and booking risk. We are also going to be looking at the latest shuffles in the air freight networks due to a short supply of capacity Foreign.
My first guest for this episode. To help me unpack the latest in the ocean freight market, I am joined by head of procurement, pricing and commercial relations of Ocean Freight at Noaatum Logistics, Stephanie Loomis. Hi, Stephanie, great to have you back on the podcast.
[00:00:45] Speaker B: Thanks, Charlotte.
[00:00:45] Speaker C: Great to be back.
[00:00:46] Speaker A: So getting straight into the news. For the last few weeks we've been reporting on these increasing Trans Pacific rates and looking at kind of what is behind this. So to start, do you have any indication of where we kind of currently sit with the Transpac rates, how these have changed perhaps within the last few weeks and what you perceive to be the main driver of the increases that we've been seeing?
[00:01:06] Speaker C: Yeah, rates are holding pretty firm after the carriers pushed through an increase on September 1st.
So yes, the West coast rates are over 8,000, landing about 82 to 83.
East coast rates are now close to 12,000, you know, anywhere from 11, 11, 5 to say 11,800.
You know, what I would say is causing this is sort of a brutal cocktail of, you know, the persistent congestion in the Chinese port operations, you know, and some of the transshipment hubs are also jammed up over there. And then a tightening of the Panama Canal rest, you know, restrictions and this just seemingly unending peak season, you know, volumes of peak season on the, on the TP that, that just seems to be faking everybody out.
And then if you, you know, sprinkle in a little bit of what's becoming almost a weekly blank sailing strategy from the carriers and, and you get rates that, you know, these are rates we haven't seen since COVID They're not quite that high, but it's certainly nothing we've seen before.
[00:02:24] Speaker A: The worst kind of cocktail you could possibly imagine.
Yeah, because I was looking at Wise Tech's new monthly ocean freight risk outlook that they launched on Thursday.
And the recent report said that on the Asia North America route, freight risk is expected to remain elevated over the month ahead. So the report said that demand to supply ratio is expected to reach 100% in week 38 before falling to 79%. And then 91% the following weeks. So crucially they also said that booking security risk remains around or above its historical average throughout the outlook, which is the next few weeks. So that's increasing to just above 40% in the later weeks which they said indicates that booking acceptance risk remains elevated despite the absence of a sustained capacity constraint. Is this what you've been seeing? I mean have contracts and booking requests been harder to manage on the Trans Pacific these last few weeks with the
[00:03:18] Speaker C: high rates certainly on the Trans Pacific eastbound and India to the us I would say yes.
You know we do actually see capacity still a bit constrained. I mean, you know, estimates now are what the global, you know, the congestion has sucked up, you know, close to 13% of the global capacity that you know is locked in congestion. So I think, you know, we've heard some forwarders are, or some carriers are cutting forwarders allocations again and potentially bcos. There's serious, and these are serious decisions by the carriers that show the amount of help they need to bring back some of this service reliability that's been slipping and slipping. So you add those constraints to the very high rates you're going to get carriers prioritizing higher paying cargo, you know, they're just, you know, they're at least, especially since the congestion in China there, there is certainly a bit of that pay, pay to play coming back into the market again if, if your freight absolutely must move, you're you potentially accepting higher rates, you know, some high that might make people's stomachs churn a little bit. But that is, that is what we're seeing.
[00:04:40] Speaker A: I'm sure people expect that. I mean it's the same story every single time the rates go up. From your perspective, how is this kind of comparing with the other major trades?
We reported this week that the collapse of Omani led talks to resolve the Straits of Hormuz conflict which were due to take place in Salalah this week will be another setback to Middle east importers right now struggling with the highest container rates on record, even surpassing the pandemic era highs on that trade. And then again there's also this factor of increased Suez transits on the Asia Europe trade. Last week we saw the Gemini partners Maersk and Hapag Lloyd announce that four more of their Asia Europe services are returning to the Suez transits on the head hall westbound sailings. That is the AE5, the AE11, the AE12 and the ME2 services. For anyone interested. So what impact are all of these factors together having on the other major Trades?
[00:05:32] Speaker C: Well, it certainly depends on the trade.
You know, where the Far east westbound and the Trans Pacific eastbound used to have some similarities, you know, at least on trends and patterns.
You know, we now just see these trades completely decoupled and detached, you know, right now with, I mean, obviously they have different, different drivers, different challenges.
You know, this. But I would say the significant but cautious return to the Suez, I think for the carriers is a little bit of a lesser of two evils.
You know, I don't think that especially given the fact that we see the movements of the Houthis and what's going on over there. You know, I don't think this is something they'd be rushing back to do if it wasn't for the, the continuing congestion that is sucking up so much of their capacity. You know, they, they've got to, you know, they, they've got to try to get some control back into their service levels. So, you know, so even though this is likely to drive down the Far east westbound rates even more, and they were already on the decline and quite low, especially compared to the Trans Pacific.
It's, you know, there's always as well, the significant savings on fuel that they don't have to go around Africa.
So, you know, we'll, we'll see how this, you know, I don't expect this to be a rush of, of, of the carriers going back through the Suez, but it certainly has shippers hopeful. I think that this will somehow finally open, you know, unlock that lever that the carriers have had for, you know, the pulling and the pushing of capacity, and maybe we'll see some easing of freight rates. But I think it's too early to tell for sure.
[00:07:24] Speaker A: I mean, speaking of capacity, I wanted to ask you about this because we reported last week on rumors in shipbroking circles that Maersk is on the verge of making a series of huge new orders for vessels, potentially doubling its new building pipeline. So according to Lionelitka calculations, maersk now has 1.5 million TEU on order, representing 32% of its existing fleet. This is up from 870, 100, 870,000 TEU on order at the end of August. So quite a big jump. Obviously this is just one carrier, but what do you make of the total order book size as we head into 2027, which is the first year that we're going to kind of start to see these substantial deliveries ahead of the peak in 2028? I mean, do you think this is a big factor in rates and availability, or do you think the Capacity kind of is a bit of a non issue.
[00:08:18] Speaker C: Well first Maersk is, is, you know, has finally, you know, they can't stand anymore that all their, you know, competitors are spending all their Covid, you know, riches on, on vessels. So they're playing some catch up here, which I think they, they need to do. I mean this is their core business after all. So as far as, you know, looking out at these large order books and the new, the new capacity coming into the market, I think there are a couple of key things to consider.
As you know, many I know are hopeful and expecting that this record order book and deliveries will possibly see, it'll be a perfect flip of the script and finally bring some power back to the shippers and potentially bring rates down. But first, the current congestion. I think everybody has to remember that this really, really clearly shows the very limited slack that ultimately is in the global supply chain.
You know, if there's one thing, one lesson we all should have taken from COVID it's you know, what's that saying?
One flap of a butterfly wing and all of a sudden we're living in chaos. You know, it takes one small disruption to potentially turn everything upside down.
That and I think we're learning some interesting things that there's a change in behavior in the carriers that I actually think could have, they could have started doing some of these things much earlier because they learned a lesson from COVID But they've viewed if there isn't a disruption that helps inflate freight costs and bring some constraint into the market, they can manipulate the market by their capacity discipline. So you know, sea intelligence, I'm sure you guys saw, you know, I know you did a wrap up story on it, that was a really, really eye opening article and analysis on the, you know, the days of blank sailing simply being something we dealt with before a big, you know, Chinese holiday or a big slowdown. Slack season has now become a weekly occurrence.
They're using this structurally to you know, maintain rate levels. Sure. But obviously it also helps them with cost control. It, it allows them some flexibility to bring service back in line when, when there is congestion and it, but you know, at the end of the day I think this is, you know, their, their focus with some of these blank sailings is certainly profit over service sometimes. So it's, it's a fine line between managing their capacity and you know, creating, creating some constraints that just makes it all the more difficult for shippers to keep consistent service for their bookings and to control costs for.
[00:11:27] Speaker A: Yeah, definitely. I mean I've read a conspiracy theory that carriers are the ones creating this port congestion as a way to manage their capacity. But we won't get into that now. Complete conspiracy. Stephanie, thank you so much for.
Thank you so much for joining me. It's been great to chat to you. Thanks, Charlotte, my next guest for this episode. To help me round out the air freight news and beyond, I am joined by the Lodestar publisher, Alex Linane. Hi Alex, welcome back.
[00:11:51] Speaker B: Hi Charlotte.
[00:11:53] Speaker A: So, Alex, following the fatal Miami airport incident involving an Amazon Air 767 operated by 21 Air, Amazon has now suspended operations with the carrier.
You did a report on this. So what has the NTSB investigation revealed so far? And also, why has Amazon dropped one of its contracted operators before the investigation is complete? And also, Ben, what Does removing these 767 freighters mean for Amazon Air's network as it now approaches peak season?
[00:12:25] Speaker B: Yeah, sure. So Amazon's decision I think is quite significant because it hasn't just said we're waiting for the outcome of the investigation. It has suspended operations with 21 air, in its words, after reviewing some of the surrounding circumstances. Now, we don't know what exactly that means.
So far the NTSB has not determined a cause, but the evidence so far has raised some questions. One pilot repeatedly warned the aircraft was going too fast.
There appears to have been attempted go around after touchdown which was then aborted.
So investigators are looking at the crew, the aircraft, but also at 21 Air's procedures and its contractual relationship with Amazon. So operationally, 21 Air had eight 767s with Amazon before the crash. One was destroyed. So we've now got seven left taken out of the Amazon operation. It's quite significant. But Amazon has a huge pool of 767s operated by ATI and ABX and it's got other freighters. So it's more of a short term network reshuffle than a sort of massive capacity crisis, I would say.
I think the bigger question here may be what it means for 21 air and exactly what Amazon discovered when it started to look at those surrounding circumstances.
That one might be the thing to be watching for.
[00:13:43] Speaker A: I mean, speaking of these kind of reshuffled networks, obviously Amazon is not the only carrier to be faced with a fleet reshuffle at the moment. As you wrote last week, there are quite a few airlines having to reshape their freighter network.
As you said, uneven demand and a shortage of available aircraft are increasing the importance of existing capacity and how it's deployed. So what is standing out to you from these reshuffles.
[00:14:06] Speaker B: I think what stands out is that airlines, they're not adding more capacity but they're simply getting more use out of the capacity that they have. So World ACD says global capacity has barely moved since late June. It's a percentage up here and a percentage down there. It's nothing significant.
No. New freighters really are coming on stream very quickly, but freighters themselves are being moved to chase the most profitable markets. For example, they're going from Asia Europe onto the Trans Pacific and you can see various individual airlines doing that. We looked at ana, the Japanese airline and NCA which obviously are combining operations. Cathay is adding capacity to the Americas.
MAS in Mexico which is stuck at just 5A 30s that's adding frequencies and partnerships to extend its network.
And then we've got airports are also competing for this capacity, trying to lure freighters in. I mean you did a story on Chicago Rockford which is very good, which is obviously trying to get more freighters. The new Indian airport, Navi Mumbai is offering new international freighter services at 90% discount on landing charges. Glasgow Prestwick is up to 16 scheduled weekly services with China.
So what's standing out is how important existing capacity is and the competitive advantage being where you're going to put that capacity and which aircraft and airports you're going to be using.
[00:15:29] Speaker A: Yeah, it is an interesting story about how airports compete for volumes, especially with the dedicated freighter hubs versus the passenger and freighter hubs. It's interesting that kind of shift that's happening there. As you said. I spoke to Chicago Rockford. They said that they were trying to learn from Liege airport and the captured carriers that they've got there for E Commerce and pharma. I think they said as our healthcare slightly aside from air freight, you were looking recently at the relationship between shippers and their three PLs and also their four PLs. So your article was based on the latest annual third party logistics study, the findings of which prompted Seiko Logistics to argue that some companies may have outgrown the traditional 3 PL altogether. So what are your thoughts on this? What came out in the latest report?
[00:16:17] Speaker B: Well, actually I'm hoping to do a bit more on this. So any forward or shipper that wants to get in touch and has opinions on this, I'd be delighted to hear them. What stood out from the report is that shippers aren't unhappy with their 3 PLs, but they're asking a lot more of them, especially in times of, you know, risk and disruption.
So 88% say that their three PL relationships are successful, but half of those are thinking of consolidating the number of providers that they're using.
81% say disruption in supply chain complexity is driving the need for more strategic relationships with their forwarders. And of course technology is a huge issue. 90% said it's really important when choosing a 3 PL, but only 57% are satisfied with the technology that they're getting from their providers, which I think is very interesting. Now SECO has argued that eventually Companies will outgrow 3 PL and need a 4 PL to orchestrate everything. But then I spoke to James Hookham at the Global Shippers forum and he said he isn't really seeing that, especially from sort of medium smaller shippers. You need a lot of money to go for a 4PL solution.
Instead he says they're demanding more 4PL like capabilities from their existing providers. Now it's really interesting topic as I said. Please get in touch if you have any opinions.
[00:17:33] Speaker A: This space has moved quite quickly. I think this was quite evident when I went to Manifest earlier this year. Was it this year? Gosh, this year it's gone really quickly. But yeah, there's a lot of new providers popping up. I'm just waiting for their to be 5pls and 6pls and all of that. And finally Alex, what was on the Lodestar Premium this week?
[00:17:51] Speaker B: Well, following the death of Klaus Michael Kuhner I think it was last month, it looks like there might be a shuffle in management at Kuhn and Nagel. Now there's been no announcement, this is not for certain at all, but there's few names coming into the phrase people who might replace Stefan Poel. So anyway, that's a fun article to read. There's also a really interesting piece on how you value a freight forwarding business and another really good look at how technology investment lags savings. The headline of this piece kind of explains it all. The billion dollar gap between buying the software and getting the savings. So that's crucial for many forwarders.
We also have another very well sourced look at shuffles inside MSC and CMA cgm and a look at the possible takeover of Manuport Logistics, among many other things.
[00:18:39] Speaker A: Lots of great stuff on Premium as always. Now at the end of this month I'm going to Aviation Connect Athens, so if anyone is going to Aviation Connect, please do reach out to me and I'm sure I'll be talking to people there about a lot of the things we've spoken about in this episode. Is there anything on your radar at the moment?
[00:18:55] Speaker B: Alex yeah, we're, we're doing a sort of cross mode look at Canada and its potential new trade partners and cargo flows coming from that. We are also going to look quite closely at fuel prices and the impact that has on the industry across the board. So again, if anyone has thoughts on any of those things, please get in touch. Alexelowstar.com thank you.
[00:19:18] Speaker A: And if any of that sounds interesting, then do keep checking on theloadstar.com for those articles. Alex, thank you so much for joining me. It's been great to speak to you.
[00:19:26] Speaker B: Thanks Charlotte.
[00:19:27] Speaker A: That is all we have time for on this episode. A huge thank you to Stephanie and Alex for joining me and helping me recap the week's supply chain news and a huge thank you to you all for listening watching if you are watching on YouTube. If you're not watching on YouTube, please do head over to our YouTube channel at TheLodgeStar podcast and like subscribe, share, comment, all of that. And please do get in touch if you would like to appear on a future episode of the Lodestar podcast. News in brief Charlotteheldstar.com Goodbye.
