The end of globalisation? How the invasion of Ukraine and Russian sanctions are impacting freight markets and the future of free trade.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing significant supply chain issues as carriers, ports and forwarders cancel services due to the fear of carrying or handling sanctioned cargo or incurring reputational damage.  The Black Sea, meanwhile, has been classified as a high-risk war zone by the Joint War Committee, a move that has hit imports and exports. Europe’s open skies have also been dramatically closed with all sorts of implications for airlines.

In Part 1 of this episode, we explore what War in Europe and sanctions regimes means on a practical level if you’re in the business of logistics and freight. We ask what next for air cargo and shipping operations and freight rates? And what does this invasion mean for rail services from Asia to Europe?

We also hear how logistics companies are helping the humanitarian effort and what we can all do to help. And we hear the traumatic story of one seafarer who was on the wrong end of Russian missiles in the Black Sea.

In Part 2, we look longer-term. Is this the end of the post-world War 2 rules-based order on which global trade and globalisation itself were built? And, if so, what does this mean for the supply chain landscape on which you all plan and compete?

Guests

Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

Ami Daniel, CEO of Windward

Adrian Batayen, seafarer on the Namura Queen, a vessel attacked by the Russian Navy off Ukraine in the Black Sea

Chris Weeks, VP, Humanitarian Affairs, Deutsche Post DHL

Alex Lennane, Publisher, The Loadstar

Nick Savvides, News Editor, The Loadstar

Episode in more detail

Part 1

Missiles and escape from the Black Sea (2.43)

Air space closures – impact on air cargo capacity and rates (8.32)

Rail to ocean? (13.20)

Sanctions explained (14.50)

Russia and reputational risk as carriers pull services (17.50)

How companies and governments are defining ‘Russian’ interests and scaling up due diligence (22.00)

The humanitarian efforts of the logistics industry and how to help (26.59 – 35.27)

Part 2 – The post-invasion geopolitical and logistics landscape

Exclusive interview with Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

The changing world order and history in fast-forward (36.00)

Sanctions and the weaponization of Western institutions (38.40)

The new trading environment and why it’s a zero-sum game (42.40)

What this new Cold War and the politicisation of supply chains mean for logistics professionals (45.21)

The end of Belt and Road? (48.50)

How to succeed in this new environment (51.32)

Credit: created, produced and hosted by Mike King